Policy Papers


Undermining our future

There is a general consensus among all economists that our economy is at an inflection point and, barring a global catastrophe, sustainable high GDP growth is possible for an extended period of time. Currently even pessimists peg the projected growth rate at around 6.5% per annum while optimists expect 8.5% -10% growth and that too for a period in excess of 15 years. It is therefore easy to arrive at the conclusion that India is shining but once again this conclusion may prove to be erroneous. Analysis of this high growth rate shows that the driving force is being provided by services, IT, housing, infrastructure development, and sales of a wide variety of basic and luxury consumer goods. Unfortunately these factors impact mainly the urban segment whereas almost 65% of our population is dependant on agricultural and allied rural activities where the real growth rate is almost flat.

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